CNBC: it’s Time to stop to appease Putin

How to contain an emboldened Russian President. — Hardly in the world there is a better place than Munich to think about the end of Western connivance against Putin and his increasingly long list of international crimes. The recent Russian attack on Ukrainian naval ships in the Black sea and the attempt to impose the Kremlin's control over a sovereign neighbor, says frédéric Kemp in article for CNBC (translation inosmi.ru).This Bavarian town pubs and Baroque beauty has a different label he would prefer to quickly get rid of, and which made the city's name synonymous with indulgence. September 30, 1938, when the danger represented by Adolf Hitler, was already evident, British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain, French Prime Minister Eduard Dalda and Italian leader Benito Mussolini signed the Munich agreement, and in the name of peace gave Nazi Germany a large area of Czechoslovakia.In the circle of serious historians and journalists, there is one unwritten rule: no one and nothing to compare with Hitler or the Third Reich, be it an individual person or a terrible episode. No direct comparison was not warranted or necessary. The Russians suffered more than others from what later became known as the "Munich betrayal" or world war, which was then approaching.However, from this episode to Munich you can learn how to give an answer to Putin. The price of overindulgence is always high. It inspires evil players to strengthen their ambitions, as they assess what they want to achieve, depending on the risk reduction and resistance.Russia's invasion of Georgia in 2008 and its de facto annexation of the two territories split off of the continued illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 — the first forcible change in European borders since world war II. Then was Moscow's intervention in Syria to support the bloody dictator Bashar al-Assad in 2015, followed by the Russian intervention in elections in 2016.Western intelligence, which these events mostly caught by surprise, began to think over what the Russian leader can do. It would be too safe to conclude that this will end after his campaigns to restore regional influence, undermining the US and its European allies, their democracy and fundamental institutions, NATO and the EU, along with the blocking capacity of these communities to accept new members from among the neighbors of Moscow.Part of the answer opened last weekend. Extremely important were two aspects of Russian military activities. First of all, it was the first time when Putin brazenly used his own regular troops against Ukraine, where he operated mainly in the shadows and using his henchmen. And secondly, opening fire against the Ukrainian warships, it needs to consider the potential chain of further events that could lead to far greater war.Tweet President Donald trump that he will not meet with Putin on the sidelines of the summit Big twenty in Argentina, were encouraging, but not enough.This week in an interview with the German newspaper "Bild Zeitung" Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko warned: "the Only language Putin understands is the solidarity of the Western world. We cannot accept the Russian aggressive policy. First was Crimea, then Eastern Ukraine, and now he wants the Azov sea".Here's a quick guide to what happened, what should have done in response in the context of a number of experts ' recommendations "Atlantic Consul."In 2003, Russia and Ukraine reached an agreement on cooperation in issues of navigation in the Azov sea and the Kerch Strait, which lies between Russia and Crimea as the only outlet to the sea. After Russia illegally annexed Crimea in 2014, it is for the $ 3.7 billion elevated bridge, uniting the Crimea with the mainland Russia. Its low height above sea level — 35 meters — cut off the access of large-capacity vessels in Ukrainian ports Mariupol and Berdyansk, which in result led to a sharp decline of revenue for these ports.In may this year, after the completion of the bridge construction, Russia has moved naval vessels, including military from its Caspian flotilla in the sea of Azov. Since Russia, according to Ukrainian authorities and the leadership of the ports, detained 150 Ukrainian and foreign commercial vessels and interrogated members of their teams, holding the ship transport and further reducing revenues.On Sunday, Russian troops opened fire and detained three Ukrainian naval ship in an attempt to pass from the Black sea to the sea of Azov through the Kerch Strait. Russian troops detained the 24 Ukrainian seafarers, six of them were injured, they have transported them to Moscow with the purpose of investigations.US, European allies, the EU and NATO have condemned the Kremlin's aggression against Ukraine. And if not more, that Putin does not stop. Experts "Atlantic Consul" prefer trilateral diplomatic, economic and military responses, but are not restricted to.At the diplomatic level, the US, NATO, EU and other Western allies should not only contain Russian actions, as well as detailing how violated a specific international Convention. Russia should demand: to apologize, punish those responsible for their actions and to immediately release Ukrainian sailors.Russia should provide the Ukrainian carriers free access to the sea of Azov in accordance with the provisions of the agreement 2003. NATO and EU should work together to send to this sea-finding mission to the circumstances of the incident.At the economic level, the United States and Europe should be more rigidly to strengthen existing sanctions imposed over Russia's annexation of Crimea, because it was the source of the problem. Then also should prepare new sanctions against Russian financial institutions and shipping companies that will take effect if Russia will not back down.To set a higher price, the United States should push Germany to suspend the ill-conceived construction of the "Nord stream — 2" gas pipeline from Russia to Germany through the Baltic sea. Numerous Russian provocations undermine European attempts to ensure that gas transit will continue through Ukraine after starting the "Nord stream — 2".Given the increasingly direct intervention of the Russian armed forces, the time has also come to strengthen supervision and subsequent monitoring over the sea of Azov by the OSCE and with the help of Western drones. A strong signal will be extension of the military presence of the US and NATO in the Eastern part of the Black sea, thus increasing the freedom of Maritime operations.Finally, the U.S. and allies should provide Ukraine additional defensive naval weapons, including naval and land-based missiles, patrol boats, radar and additional means for monitoring and exploration. Critics can say that such actions can be provocative. However, history has taught us that the biggest incitement is pandering. And this is the main lesson of Munich.

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